The question, then, is: Do BvP splits lead to an advantage for daily fantasy players who emphasize them? In most cases, the answer is no. Even if we knew nothing about baseball, we can test for the significance of BvP numbers by using statistics. What would such tests tell us about Laird getting two hits in 20 at-bats against Lee? They'd say the numbers are meaningless. The problem is that Laird hasn't faced Lee nearly enough times for us to discern whether his. 100 average is the result of his inability to hit Lee or just bad luck. If you think about the nature of BvP stats, it's kind of obvious that they're fragile. In Laird's battles with Lee, maybe he's actually hit the ball fairly well but still been put out maybe unusual wind gusts held back a home run, or perhaps he hit a few line drives right at defenders. If Laird had just three more hits drop in against Lee - making him 5-for-20 - he'd actually check in slightly above his career batting average. The point is that we generally can't trust BvP stats because the sample size is too small. We can't possibly know if the results are real or just noise - the byproduct of randomness. To be clear, this doesn't mean that certain batters aren't worse against particular pitchers than others - we'd expect that to be the case, actually. With that said, we need a sample size of at-bats much larger than 20 to ensure we're not being fooled by randomness. So can BvP stats help you succeed in the Official Mini Fantasy Game of MLB.com from DraftKings? Yes, but only when a batter has a significant history against a certain pitcher, such as two players who have played in the same division for years. When you see 5-for-50 instead of 2-for-20, then you're starting to get into significant territory.
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